Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$853

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 96.7¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,954

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$500.75

Total Shares4,528

Combined PnL-$251.33

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 76.8¢	$3.9K	$4.9K	+$1.0K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
ER72SEN	Underavg 87¢	$741.34	$772.63	+$31.29	67% 304-150 (454)
poshposh	Underavg 95.7¢	$338.13	$336.98	-$1.15	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 21.1¢	$266.7	$276.44	+$9.74	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.1¢	$208.56	$197.99	-$10.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.3¢	$58.13	$78.45	+$20.32
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 80.5¢	$321.99	$267.99	-$54	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 94.6¢	$238.89	$241.86	+$2.97	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 68¢	$165.75	$229.13	+$63.38	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
RN1CTR	Overavg 8.5¢	$267.67	$133.11	-$134.56	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 78.8¢	$95.25	$74.38	-$20.87	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 89¢	$44.5	$44.32	-$0.18	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 79¢	$41.08	$41.6	+$0.52	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
US user921123CTR<$100	Overavg 12.1¢	$98.08	$34.33	-$63.75	59% 967-663 (1630)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 18.6¢	$19.14	$20.6	+$1.46	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 81¢	$20.25	$20	-$0.25	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 19¢	$3.42	$15.97	+$12.54	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 2.7¢	$3.02	$3.72	+$0.7	59% 30499-21212 (51711)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,920.22

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$741.34

Value

$772.63

PnL

+$31.29

Record

67%

304-150 (454)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$338.13

Value

$336.98

PnL

-$1.15

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$266.7

Value

$276.44

PnL

+$9.74

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Under$208.5621.1¢-$10.57

Over$58.1359.3¢+$20.32

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$321.99

Value

$267.99

PnL

-$54

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$238.89

Value

$241.86

PnL

+$2.97

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$165.75

Value

$229.13

PnL

+$63.38

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$267.67

Value

$133.11

PnL

-$134.56

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$95.25

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$20.87

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$44.5

Value

$44.32

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.08

Value

$41.6

PnL

+$0.52

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

user921123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.08

Value

$34.33

PnL

-$63.75

Record

59%

967-663 (1630)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$19.14

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.25

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

$15.97

PnL

+$12.54

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0.7

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.