Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Al Hilal Saudi Club (56%) · Al Hilal Saudi Club at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Al Hilal Saudi Club>99¢Al Fateh Saudi Club<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Consensus Traders

Al Hilal Saudi Club 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$346.44

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 99.5¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAl Hilal Saudi Club at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Al Hilal Saudi Club

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Al Hilal Saudi Club100%

Al Fateh Saudi Club1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Al Hilal Saudi Club5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL+$351

Al Fateh Saudi Club4 traders

Total Value$66.17

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$4.56

Al Hilal Saudi Club — 56%Al Fateh Saudi Club — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Al Hilal Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAl Hilal Saudi Club 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAl Hilal Saudi Club 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAl Hilal Saudi Club 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Al Hilal Saudi Club 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 60.1¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$298.92	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 44.9¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	$-1.6K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
└ Al Hilal Saudi Club leg	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 93.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.32
└ Al Fateh Saudi Club leg	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 44.9¢	$1.8K	$285.83	$-1.5K
0xheavy888	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 72.6¢	$614.41	$660.27	+$12	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
RN1	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 73¢	$149.65	$190.65	+$41	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 71¢	$90.17	$88.9	-$1.27	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 54.2¢	$35.47	$30.74	-$4.74	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
poshposhCTR<$100	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 55¢	$12.59	$18.2	+$5.61	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 29¢	$22.33	$16.94	-$5.39	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Al Hilal Saudi Clubavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.9	+$0.35	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Al Fateh Saudi Clubavg 25¢	$0.33	$0.29	-$0.04	53% 15980-14158 (30138)

GoalLineGhost

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Invested

$1,552.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$298.92

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Al Fateh Saudi Club

Invested

$2,911.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Both legs:

Al Hilal Saudi Club$1,076.9593.5¢-$5.32

Al Fateh Saudi Club$1,834.2444.9¢$-1.5K

0xheavy888

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Invested

$614.41

Value

$660.27

PnL

+$12

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

RN1

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Invested

$149.65

Value

$190.65

PnL

+$41

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Invested

$90.17

Value

$88.9

PnL

-$1.27

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Al Fateh Saudi Club

Invested

$35.47

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

poshposhCTR<$100

Al Fateh Saudi Club

Invested

$12.59

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$5.61

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Al Fateh Saudi Club

Invested

$22.33

Value

$16.94

PnL

-$5.39

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

ameisgoat11<$100

Al Hilal Saudi Club

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

CannaeCTR<$100

Al Fateh Saudi Club

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

Research grade

NeutralAl Hilal Saudi Club at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Al Hilal Saudi Club

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Al Hilal Saudi Club. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAl Hilal Saudi Club 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAl Hilal Saudi Club 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAl Hilal Saudi Club 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Al Hilal Saudi Club 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Al Hilal Saudi Club wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.