Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$44.08

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 87¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,010

Combined PnL+$9.87

No3 traders

Total Value$927.22

Total Shares7,136

Combined PnL+$34.21

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 87.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$23	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 12.5¢	$890.6	$924.7	+$34.09	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 88.5¢	$707.99	$695.99	-$12	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 89¢	$185.39	$186.62	+$1.23	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 89¢	$177.05	$174.13	-$2.93	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$79.31	$79.84	+$0.53	65% 1708-928 (2636)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$8.09	$8.14	+$0.05	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.32	$1.38	+$0.06	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.14	$1.14	+$0.06	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,511.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$23

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$890.6

Value

$924.7

PnL

+$34.09

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$707.99

Value

$695.99

PnL

-$12

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$185.39

Value

$186.62

PnL

+$1.23

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$177.05

Value

$174.13

PnL

-$2.93

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.31

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$0.53

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.