Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $31K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$30.5K
$-1.4K
92¢ → 94.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 92¢ | $27.6K | $27.4K | -$150 | 47% 2516-2814 (5330) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.9K | $1.6K | $-1.3K | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $554 | $549 | -$5 | 55% 7128-5716 (12844) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 91¢ | $422.24 | $426.88 | +$4.64 | 57% 1733-1295 (3028) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 92¢ | $404.28 | $408.1 | +$3.81 | 53% 15968-14143 (30111) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $41.4 | $41.18 | -$0.22 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
Invested
$27,600
Value
$27.4K
PnL
-$150
Record
47%
2516-2814 (5330)
Invested
$2,910.46
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
0xheavy888Invested
$554
Value
$549
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
7128-5716 (12844)
oieshfn345Invested
$422.24
Value
$426.88
PnL
+$4.64
Record
57%
1733-1295 (3028)
Invested
$404.28
Value
$408.1
PnL
+$3.81
Record
53%
15968-14143 (30111)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$41.18
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.