Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 30¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$5.71

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 29.5¢

-57% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,807

Combined PnL+$0.37

Yes5 traders

Total Value$750.01

Total Shares2,388

Combined PnL+$5.34

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$156.21	57% 1729-1293 (3022)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.7¢	$801.01	$944.05	+$143.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.5¢	$276.09	$289.24	+$13.16
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 68¢	$855.19	$870.87	+$15.68	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 30.7¢	$734.46	$649.39	+$19.48	74% 1592-569 (2161)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 72¢	$252.1	$238.1	-$14.01	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 68.8¢	$236.53	$236.82	+$0.29	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$68	$50	-$18	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$41.12	$38.83	-$2.28	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$27.22	$27.22	-$0	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$17	$16	-$1	47% 4570-5078 (9648)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$15.39	$15.03	-$0.36	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.54	$7.4	+$4.86	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.4	+$1.05	58% 18665-13716 (32381)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,077.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$156.21

Record

57%

1729-1293 (3022)

Both legs:

No$801.0157.7¢+$143.05

Yes$276.0930.5¢+$13.16

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$855.19

Value

$870.87

PnL

+$15.68

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$734.46

Value

$649.39

PnL

+$19.48

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$252.1

Value

$238.1

PnL

-$14.01

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$236.53

Value

$236.82

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$68

Value

$50

PnL

-$18

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$41.12

Value

$38.83

PnL

-$2.28

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.22

Value

$27.22

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$16

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

4570-5078 (9648)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$15.39

Value

$15.03

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$4.86

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$1.05

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.