Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
11
Yes 27%
$1.5K
-$236.39
45.8¢ → 6.5¢
-86% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 46.4¢ | $953.61 | $801.29 | -$152.33 | 57% 1729-1293 (3022) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 74.7¢ | $404.55 | $318.09 | -$86.46 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 62¢ | $124 | $122 | -$2 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $92.21 | $93.74 | -$3.07 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54.6¢ | $83.36 | $92.95 | +$9.59 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $66.7 | $66.3 | -$0.4 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
LA lavendergooms<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $21.6 | $20.88 | -$0.72 | 52% 2623-2375 (4998) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $15.43 | $13.07 | -$2.36 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $6.7 | +$1 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.75 | $3.01 | -$0.74 | 60% 3351-2263 (5614) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $1.95 | +$1.1 | 58% 18665-13716 (32381) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$953.61
Value
$801.29
PnL
-$152.33
Record
57%
1729-1293 (3022)
Invested
$404.55
Value
$318.09
PnL
-$86.46
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
0xheavy888Invested
$124
Value
$122
PnL
-$2
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$92.21
Value
$93.74
PnL
-$3.07
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$83.36
Value
$92.95
PnL
+$9.59
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$66.7
Value
$66.3
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$20.88
PnL
-$0.72
Record
52%
2623-2375 (4998)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.43
Value
$13.07
PnL
-$2.36
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$6.7
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$0.74
Record
60%
3351-2263 (5614)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$1.1
Record
58%
18665-13716 (32381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.