Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$251.48

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 97.7¢

+68% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,832

Combined PnL+$776.88

Yes4 traders

Total Value$220.95

Total Shares5,710

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 18.7¢	$325.61	$1.7K	+$265.45	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 73.3¢	$737.15	$955.48	+$219.97	60% 11476-7595 (19071)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.2K	$782.82	+$62.53	43% 3085-4123 (7208)
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$596.97	$716.36	+$119.39	53% 172-152 (324)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 76.7¢	$434.74	$544.27	+$109.53	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$623.01	$98.95	-$524.06	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 31.2¢	$448.92	$56.56	-$384.61	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 12.5¢	$166.23	$52.99	-$113.24	48% 14339-15840 (30179)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$18.89	$12.45	-$6.44	20% 2456-9837 (12293)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$325.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$265.45

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$737.15

Value

$955.48

PnL

+$219.97

Record

60%

11476-7595 (19071)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,184.83

Value

$782.82

PnL

+$62.53

Record

43%

3085-4123 (7208)

roscoff

Invested

$596.97

Value

$716.36

PnL

+$119.39

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

cigarettes

Invested

$434.74

Value

$544.27

PnL

+$109.53

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$623.01

Value

$98.95

PnL

-$524.06

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$448.92

Value

$56.56

PnL

-$384.61

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$166.23

Value

$52.99

PnL

-$113.24

Record

48%

14339-15840 (30179)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.89

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$6.44

Record

20%

2456-9837 (12293)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.