Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 27%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$303.66

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 99.2¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,043

Combined PnL+$282.51

Yes8 traders

Total Value$174.88

Total Shares5,829

Combined PnL-$586.17

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 89.8¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	+$162.9	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.3¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$189.78	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 89.7¢	$659.2	$336.35	-$70.17	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$206.1	$72.33	-$133.77	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$645.14	$48.01	-$258.25	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$107.92	$16.84	-$91.08	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$59.18	$13.66	-$43.25	69% 504-222 (726)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.12	$10.09	+$5.98	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$34.42	$7.94	-$25.29	63% 710-409 (1119)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$35.45	$4.67	-$30.78	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$11.07	$1.33	-$9.74	51% 7341-7085 (14426)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,434.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$162.9

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,049.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$189.78

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$659.2

Value

$336.35

PnL

-$70.17

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$206.1

Value

$72.33

PnL

-$133.77

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$645.14

Value

$48.01

PnL

-$258.25

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

ferdinand2CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.92

Value

$16.84

PnL

-$91.08

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.18

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$43.25

Record

69%

504-222 (726)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.12

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$5.98

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.42

Value

$7.94

PnL

-$25.29

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.45

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$30.78

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$9.74

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.