Exact Score: Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$3.3K
$2.1K
36.2¢ → 95.3¢
+163% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roscoff | Yesavg 30¢ | $900 | $2.9K | +$2.0K | 50% 175-172 (347) |
 dips. | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $251.13 | $243.97 | -$3.33 | 47% 11022-12642 (23664) |
WH whosay | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $75.8 | $138.19 | +$65.07 | 56% 1164-901 (2065) |
 bot-rapin<$100 | Yesavg 95.3¢ | $7.23 | $7.03 | +$0.13 | — 6-0 (6) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.