Will Al Diraiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$600.61

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 98.6¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,047

Combined PnL+$573.62

Yes6 traders

Total Value$58.06

Total Shares5,806

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 75.3¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	+$297.05	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77.3¢	$964.47	$1.2K	+$271.05	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 87.7¢	$624.21	$328.55	+$5.53	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$372.09	$24.4	-$347.69	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$553.5	$13.5	-$540	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$181.01	$8.68	-$167.98	63% 710-409 (1119)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$21.41	$5.16	-$16.25	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$65.53	$4.83	-$60.7	69% 504-222 (726)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$43.1	$1.49	-$41.61	50% 20187-20523 (40710)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,791.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$297.05

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

cigarettes

Invested

$964.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$271.05

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$624.21

Value

$328.55

PnL

+$5.53

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$372.09

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$347.69

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$553.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$540

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$8.68

PnL

-$167.98

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.41

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$16.25

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.53

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$60.7

Record

69%

504-222 (726)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.1

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$41.61

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.