Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 4.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$29.62

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 82.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,705

Combined PnL-$33.25

Over2 traders

Total Value$82.41

Total Shares549

Combined PnL+$3.63

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$32.3	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 13.7¢	$71.6	$64.33	+$6.04	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 86.6¢	$64.41	$63.62	-$0.79	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$20.48	$18.07	-$2.41	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 86¢	$9.89	$9.78	-$0.12	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 86¢	$4.29	$4.24	-$0.05	49% 18981-19394 (38375)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,340.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$32.3

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.6

Value

$64.33

PnL

+$6.04

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$64.41

Value

$63.62

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.48

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$2.41

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

18981-19394 (38375)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.