Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 3.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$3.1K
$6.18
70.5¢ → 71.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 70.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$18.64 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 70.2¢ | $787.68 | $800.18 | +$12.5 | 56% 7053-5654 (12707) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 29.5¢ | $547.99 | $565.82 | +$17.83 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
OD Oddstorm | Underavg 70.9¢ | $354.36 | $347.5 | -$6.86 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $40.02 | $42.09 | +$2.07 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $39.9 | $39.24 | -$0.67 | 50% 6968-6968 (13936) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $2.1 | $1.99 | -$0.11 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
Invested
$1,316
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$18.64
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
0xheavy888Invested
$787.68
Value
$800.18
PnL
+$12.5
Record
56%
7053-5654 (12707)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$547.99
Value
$565.82
PnL
+$17.83
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$354.36
Value
$347.5
PnL
-$6.86
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$40.02
Value
$42.09
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$39.24
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
6968-6968 (13936)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$1.99
PnL
-$0.11
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.