Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 53¢ · $454 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$454.31
$22.83
49.2¢ → 53¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $294.13 | $298.26 | +$3.15 | 56% 7053-5654 (12707) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.5¢ | $193.99 | $191.99 | -$4 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $100.14 | $106.27 | +$7.15 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $72.5 | $76.93 | +$4.44 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $53.41 | $56.68 | +$3.27 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $9.7 | $9.75 | +$0.05 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 49¢ | $248.76 | $7.68 | +$14.92 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$294.13
Value
$298.26
PnL
+$3.15
Record
56%
7053-5654 (12707)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.5
Value
$76.93
PnL
+$4.44
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Invested
$53.41
Value
$56.68
PnL
+$3.27
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
VeryLucky888Invested
$248.76
Value
$7.68
PnL
+$14.92
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.