Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.2K
$37.36
76.1¢ → 89¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 76¢ | $760.28 | $795.26 | +$34.98 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 76.4¢ | $335.97 | $334.37 | -$1.6 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $41.02 | $42.91 | +$1.89 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $23 | $24 | +$1.5 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.6¢ | $10.89 | $11.43 | +$0.54 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $3.42 | $4.77 | +$0.07 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.8 | -$0.03 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$760.28
Value
$795.26
PnL
+$34.98
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
0xheavy888Invested
$335.97
Value
$334.37
PnL
-$1.6
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
Invested
$41.02
Value
$42.91
PnL
+$1.89
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$23
Value
$24
PnL
+$1.5
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$10.89
Value
$11.43
PnL
+$0.54
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.