Will NEOM SC win on 2026-10-30?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
-$84.19
65.4¢ → 82.5¢
+26% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$51.72 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$31.4 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $332 | $328 | -$9 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $260 | $256 | -$4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36¢ | $72 | $72 | -$5 | |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $127.02 | $127.77 | +$0.75 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $92.64 | $90.82 | -$1.82 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $10.72 | $11.06 | +$0.25 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $6.4 | -$0.1 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.45 | -$0.15 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,594.1
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$51.72
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$1,372.54
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$31.4
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$332
Value
$328
PnL
-$9
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.02
Value
$127.77
PnL
+$0.75
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$92.64
Value
$90.82
PnL
-$1.82
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.72
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.