Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,175

Combined PnL+$168.33

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,270

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.04	98% 12937-204 (13141)
RN1CTR	Underavg 51.1¢	$927.26	$1.3K	+$391.81	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Underavg 76.3¢	$4.2K	$663.28	$-3.2K	80% 5028-1238 (6266)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 40¢	$166.01	$290.29	+$124.28	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
SY SyrrokCTR	Underavg 61.1¢	$769.15	$227.87	-$460.03	61% 1799-1146 (2945)
Junior112	Overavg 24¢	$128	$112	-$16	43% 649-862 (1511)
US User7429ARB<$100	Underavg 26.3¢	$28.82	$57.26	+$28.44	55% 8239-6653 (14892)
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.3¢	$15.96	$36.76	+$20.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.8¢	$12.86	$20.5	+$7.64
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 72.2¢	$119.14	$55.26	-$63.88	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Underavg 24.1¢	$41.19	$52.56	+$11.37	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.1¢	$30.39	$29.61	-$0.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 36¢	$10.8	$22.95	+$12.15
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Overavg 23.5¢	$17.4	$50.43	+$33.03	42% 2230-3029 (5259)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 27¢	$12.8	$47.37	+$34.57	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100	Overavg 61.5¢	$47.35	$43.7	-$1.07	82% 2382-535 (2917)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 94¢	$40.42	$32.9	-$7.52	76% 4013-1262 (5275)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$10.91	$10.86	-$0.05	49% 12487-12848 (25335)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$9.71	$9.85	+$0.15	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$1.32	$1.34	+$0.02	52% 3998-3640 (7638)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$2,071.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.04

Record

98%

12937-204 (13141)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$927.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$391.81

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Under

Invested

$4,235.29

Value

$663.28

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

80%

5028-1238 (6266)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$166.01

Value

$290.29

PnL

+$124.28

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

SyrrokCTR

Under

Invested

$769.15

Value

$227.87

PnL

-$460.03

Record

61%

1799-1146 (2945)

Junior112

Over

Invested

$128

Value

$112

PnL

-$16

Record

43%

649-862 (1511)

User7429ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$28.82

Value

$57.26

PnL

+$28.44

Record

55%

8239-6653 (14892)

Both legs:

Under$15.9626.3¢+$20.8

Over$12.8624.8¢+$7.64

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$119.14

Value

$55.26

PnL

-$63.88

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$41.19

Value

$52.56

PnL

+$11.37

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

Both legs:

Under$30.3924.1¢-$0.78

Over$10.836¢+$12.15

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Over

Invested

$17.4

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$33.03

Record

42%

2230-3029 (5259)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$12.8

Value

$47.37

PnL

+$34.57

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100

Over

Invested

$47.35

Value

$43.7

PnL

-$1.07

Record

82%

2382-535 (2917)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$40.42

Value

$32.9

PnL

-$7.52

Record

76%

4013-1262 (5275)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.91

Value

$10.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

12487-12848 (25335)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.