Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $996 held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$996

Combined PnL

-$15.65

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$894.42

Total Shares929

Combined PnL+$22.34

Under3 traders

Total Value$101.58

Total Shares356

Combined PnL-$37.98

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 96.3¢	$821.33	$840.26	+$18.93	82% 2382-535 (2917)
RN1CTR	Underavg 43¢	$113.16	$75	-$38.16	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 67¢	$50.75	$54.16	+$3.41	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 39.4¢	$24.9	$18.03	-$6.87	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.5	$8.55	+$7.05	47% 4525-5012 (9537)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$821.33

Value

$840.26

PnL

+$18.93

Record

82%

2382-535 (2917)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$113.16

Value

$75

PnL

-$38.16

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$50.75

Value

$54.16

PnL

+$3.41

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.9

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$6.87

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$7.05

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.