Will Al Diraiyah Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 63¢ · $380 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$380.38
$5.89
73.7¢ → 62.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $268.98 | $266.42 | -$2.57 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $37.32 | $37.27 | -$0.05 | 38% 3192-5199 (8391) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $19.7 | $28.72 | +$9.02 | 57% 1677-1255 (2932) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $25.2 | $24.67 | -$0.53 | 59% 45379-31733 (77112) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $8.54 | $8.62 | +$0.08 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $5.14 | $5.29 | +$0.14 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $3.79 | $3.79 | +$0 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $3.24 | $3.38 | +$0.13 | 49% 12487-12848 (25335) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $2.57 | $2.23 | -$0.34 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
Invested
$268.98
Value
$266.42
PnL
-$2.57
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$37.32
Value
$37.27
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
3192-5199 (8391)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$19.7
Value
$28.72
PnL
+$9.02
Record
57%
1677-1255 (2932)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$24.67
PnL
-$0.53
Record
59%
45379-31733 (77112)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.38
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
12487-12848 (25335)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.34
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.