Will Al Diraiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-10-30?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 62¢ · $474 held · ends Oct 30

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$473.79

Combined PnL

-$9.84

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$371.96

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$101.83

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$3.84

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 63¢	$377.96	$371.96	-$6	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.6¢	$68.39	$67.38	-$3.74	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$18.5	$18.5	+$0	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$10.24	$9.97	-$0.27	50% 24906-24594 (49500)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$5.81	$5.98	+$0.17	52% 3994-3637 (7631)

0xheavy888

Invested

$377.96

Value

$371.96

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.39

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$3.74

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.24

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

24906-24594 (49500)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.