Will Abha Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 96¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 5

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 95.5¢

+20% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares15,717

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$138.64

Total Shares6,015

Combined PnL-$295.25

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93.3¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$72.95	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 10.4¢	$318.75	$2.6K	+$2.5K	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$307.46	73% 13376-5006 (18382)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 89.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$188.68	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.2¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	+$74.24	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 96¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$24.93	60% 905-591 (1496)
DI dips.	Noavg 89.9¢	$344.54	$373.96	+$29.42	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 95.8¢	$356.62	$260.87	-$7.06	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 96.7¢	$151.87	$114.1	-$3.71	40% 980-1494 (2474)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$361.8	$95.83	-$251.24	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ No leg	Noavg 81¢	$40.5	$49.1	+$8.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$310.93	$46.73	-$259.84
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 94.2¢	$205.09	$55.03	-$1.12	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$434.17	$49.79	-$178.05	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 87.8¢	$419.81	$39.73	-$0.44	39% 974-1548 (2522)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$72.75	$32.36	-$40.39	69% 504-222 (726)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$47.09	$26.27	+$0.41	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.72	$19.6	+$5.88	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$50.06	$18.99	-$31.07	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 90.4¢	$304.42	$18.55	+$1.01	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$69.51	$17.89	-$51.62	63% 710-409 (1119)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 88.8¢	$199.91	$12.86	+$1.21	38% 947-1564 (2511)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 90.8¢	$220.21	$12.76	+$0.95	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.18	$9.04	-$0.14	42% 2905-4003 (6908)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,512.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$72.95

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$318.75

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

e46m3

Invested

$2,530.59

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$307.46

Record

73%

13376-5006 (18382)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,961.97

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$188.68

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,391.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$74.24

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$1,489.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$24.93

Record

60%

905-591 (1496)

dips.

Invested

$344.54

Value

$373.96

PnL

+$29.42

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$356.62

Value

$260.87

PnL

-$7.06

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$151.87

Value

$114.1

PnL

-$3.71

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$361.8

Value

$95.83

PnL

-$251.24

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

No$40.581¢+$8.6

Yes$310.9312¢-$259.84

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$205.09

Value

$55.03

PnL

-$1.12

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$434.17

Value

$49.79

PnL

-$178.05

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$419.81

Value

$39.73

PnL

-$0.44

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR

Yes

Invested

$72.75

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$40.39

Record

69%

504-222 (726)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$47.09

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$0.41

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.72

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$5.88

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.06

Value

$18.99

PnL

-$31.07

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$304.42

Value

$18.55

PnL

+$1.01

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.51

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$51.62

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$199.91

Value

$12.86

PnL

+$1.21

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$220.21

Value

$12.76

PnL

+$0.95

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

merod<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

2905-4003 (6908)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.