Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $824 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$823.86
$60.08
37¢ → 42.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $279.99 | $271.38 | -$8.62 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61¢ | $205 | $173.08 | -$31.93 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37¢ | $74.99 | $98.3 | +$23.31 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 37¢ | $204.15 | $194.67 | +$3.25 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 37.1¢ | $148.11 | $193.72 | +$45.61 | 56% 7053-5654 (12707) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $109.15 | $111.29 | +$2.13 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61¢ | $59.26 | $60.72 | +$1.46 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37¢ | $49.89 | $50.57 | +$0.67 | |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $35.95 | $47.12 | +$11.17 | 49% 18975-19389 (38364) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 38.6¢ | $5.64 | $5.68 | +$0.04 | 52% 3994-3636 (7630) |
Invested
$279.99
Value
$271.38
PnL
-$8.62
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$204.15
Value
$194.67
PnL
+$3.25
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$148.11
Value
$193.72
PnL
+$45.61
Record
56%
7053-5654 (12707)
Invested
$109.15
Value
$111.29
PnL
+$2.13
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.95
Value
$47.12
PnL
+$11.17
Record
49%
18975-19389 (38364)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
3994-3636 (7630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.