Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 1.5

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 96¢ · $49K held · ended Oct 30

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.0K

Combined PnL

$-5.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 95.5¢

+53% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 22 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$25.1K

Total Shares32,743

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under8 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares48,687

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 68.5¢	$10.5K	$10.8K	+$376.97	82% 2382-535 (2917)
OL olpyARB<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$7.1K	$6.0K	$-1.1K	54% 91-79 (170)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.9¢	$4.2K	$3.1K	$-1.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.93
US user921123CTR	Underavg 38.2¢	$4.2K	$5.3K	+$2.0K	21% 127-470 (597)
CH chongchong37	Overavg 49¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$50	55% 100-83 (183)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$5.5K	$4.5K	-$942.03	48% 753-814 (1567)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 55.4¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.2K	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
AR ARocky33ARB<$100	Overavg 77.4¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	$-1.4K	76% 4011-1262 (5273)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77.4¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.4K
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$22.12
RO Rocky31ARB<$100	Overavg 76.6¢	$4.5K	$2.9K	$-1.6K	73% 1545-559 (2104)
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.6¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.4K
└ Under leg	Underavg 71.5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$272.26
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Overavg 61¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$811.44	42% 2230-3029 (5259)
SY SyrrokCTR	Underavg 30¢	$8.7K	$1.1K	$-6.0K	61% 1799-1146 (2945)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Overavg 99¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$955.4	86% 5080-857 (5937)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 33.2¢	$548.54	$704.92	+$156.38	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.2¢	$382.75	$548.34	+$165.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.6¢	$165.79	$156.58	-$9.21
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191	Overavg 58.1¢	$461.04	$621	+$159.96	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
poshposh	Overavg 75.5¢	$528.69	$557.55	+$28.86	59% 9914-6887 (16801)
SH SharkVision	Overavg 94¢	$482.84	$497.08	+$14.24	62% 368-226 (594)
BE Betyourself	Overavg 59.9¢	$499.2	$345.89	-$153.31	64% 2238-1247 (3485)
PA pauleta23CTR	Underavg 21¢	$53.79	$148.98	+$95.19	67% 23266-11671 (34937)
US User7429	Overavg 52.4¢	$203.64	$137.53	-$41.43	55% 8237-6651 (14888)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 78.9¢	$200	$105.18	-$94.82	64% 1070-605 (1675)
RN1CTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$1.5K	$81.98	$-1.4K	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
RE retarb	Overavg 56.2¢	$472.84	$81.49	-$93.33	48% 4206-4475 (8681)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$79.93	$81.39	+$1.46	59% 30364-21075 (51439)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 79¢	$73.5	$38.61	-$34.89	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 26.5¢	$66.06	$31.6	-$34.46	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 97¢	$24.25	$23.88	-$0.38	83% 2586-523 (3109)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$10,451.19

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$376.97

Record

82%

2382-535 (2917)

olpyARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,117.71

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

91-79 (170)

Both legs:

Over$4,244.8670.9¢$-1.2K

Under$2,872.8548¢+$29.93

user921123CTR

Under

Invested

$4,171.45

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

21%

127-470 (597)

chongchong37

Over

Invested

$4,900

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

100-83 (183)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$5,461.31

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$942.03

Record

48%

753-814 (1567)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$2,218.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

ARocky33ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,499.51

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

76%

4011-1262 (5273)

Both legs:

Over$2,999.777.4¢$-1.4K

Under$1,499.8157.6¢+$22.12

Rocky31ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,499.51

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

73%

1545-559 (2104)

Both legs:

Over$2,999.776.6¢$-1.4K

Under$1,499.8171.5¢-$272.26

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Over

Invested

$1,736.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$811.44

Record

42%

2230-3029 (5259)

SyrrokCTR

Under

Invested

$8,672.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

61%

1799-1146 (2945)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Over

Invested

$1,986

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$955.4

Record

86%

5080-857 (5937)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$548.54

Value

$704.92

PnL

+$156.38

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

Both legs:

Under$382.7533.2¢+$165.6

Over$165.7955.6¢-$9.21

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191

Over

Invested

$461.04

Value

$621

PnL

+$159.96

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$528.69

Value

$557.55

PnL

+$28.86

Record

59%

9914-6887 (16801)

SharkVision

Over

Invested

$482.84

Value

$497.08

PnL

+$14.24

Record

62%

368-226 (594)

Betyourself

Over

Invested

$499.2

Value

$345.89

PnL

-$153.31

Record

64%

2238-1247 (3485)

pauleta23CTR

Under

Invested

$53.79

Value

$148.98

PnL

+$95.19

Record

67%

23266-11671 (34937)

User7429

Over

Invested

$203.64

Value

$137.53

PnL

-$41.43

Record

55%

8237-6651 (14888)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$105.18

PnL

-$94.82

Record

64%

1070-605 (1675)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,453.28

Value

$81.98

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

retarb

Over

Invested

$472.84

Value

$81.49

PnL

-$93.33

Record

48%

4206-4475 (8681)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.93

Value

$81.39

PnL

+$1.46

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$73.5

Value

$38.61

PnL

-$34.89

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$31.6

PnL

-$34.46

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$24.25

Value

$23.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

83%

2586-523 (3109)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 22 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.