Spread: Al Ittihad Saudi Club (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Abha Saudi Club (67%) · Abha Saudi Club at 60¢ · $513 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Abha Saudi Club
6
Abha Saudi Club 67%
$512.86
$8.28
61¢ → 59.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAbha Saudi Club at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 62¢ | $310 | $223.46 | +$5.47 | 58% 41458-30076 (71534) |
 0xheavy888 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 60¢ | $120 | $128 | +$8 | 56% 7041-5645 (12686) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Al Ittihad Saudi Clubavg 40¢ | $94.58 | $85.12 | -$9.46 | 50% 24840-24547 (49387) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 59¢ | $56.05 | $60.8 | +$4.75 | 59% 45365-31720 (77085) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Abha Saudi Clubavg 61.4¢ | $15.35 | $14.87 | -$0.47 | 47% 2245-2523 (4768) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Al Ittihad Saudi Clubavg 37¢ | $0.62 | $0.6 | -$0.02 | 52% 3955-3596 (7551) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$310
Value
$223.46
PnL
+$5.47
Record
58%
41458-30076 (71534)
0xheavy888Invested
$120
Value
$128
PnL
+$8
Record
56%
7041-5645 (12686)
Invested
$94.58
Value
$85.12
PnL
-$9.46
Record
50%
24840-24547 (49387)
Invested
$56.05
Value
$60.8
PnL
+$4.75
Record
59%
45365-31720 (77085)
Invested
$15.35
Value
$14.87
PnL
-$0.47
Record
47%
2245-2523 (4768)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
3955-3596 (7551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.