Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Al Ittihad Saudi Club leading at halftime?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
2 arb excluded
$6.5K
-$241.58
53.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Shimi1234CTR | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$150.26 | 38% 105-169 (274) |
 RN1 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$67.86 | 54% 56315-48472 (104787) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$22.5 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $406.24 | $407.23 | +$0.99 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.5¢ | $271.24 | $224.98 | -$46.26 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $135 | $182.25 | +$47.25 | |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 46.5¢ | $186 | $184 | -$2 | 54% 4855-4081 (8936) |
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $145 | $147 | +$2 | 62% 1124-677 (1801) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $93 | $93 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52¢ | $52 | $54 | +$2 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $18.76 | $12.89 | -$5.86 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $11.66 | $12.77 | +$1.11 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $5 | $10.8 | +$5.8 | 48% 753-814 (1567) |
Invested
$3,300
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$150.26
Record
38%
105-169 (274)
RN1Invested
$1,463.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$67.86
Record
54%
56315-48472 (104787)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,057.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$22.5
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$406.24
Value
$407.23
PnL
+$0.99
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Both legs:
Invested
$186
Value
$184
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
4855-4081 (8936)
Invested
$145
Value
$147
PnL
+$2
Record
62%
1124-677 (1801)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.76
Value
$12.89
PnL
-$5.86
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.66
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$1.11
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
Invested
$5
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$5.8
Record
48%
753-814 (1567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.