Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club end in a draw?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 2.5¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 2.5¢

-97% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,855

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$320.3

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL-$128.02

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 88¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.58	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
RN1CTR	Noavg 88¢	$954.55	$900.2	-$54.34	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$138.95	$382.16	+$243.21	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.2¢	$1.2K	$304.67	+$240.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.4¢	$74.63	$77.49	+$2.86
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$220.05	$240.34	+$20.29	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.8¢	$31.87	$178.15	+$146.28
└ No leg	Noavg 35.4¢	$188.17	$62.18	-$125.99
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 78.8¢	$1.6K	$208.19	-$956.78	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 24¢	$192	$184	-$8	89% 909-116 (1025)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 40.5¢	$26.13	$51.94	+$25.81	59% 9914-6887 (16801)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$43.33	$42.34	-$0.99	59% 30364-21075 (51439)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$35.68	$35.57	-$0.11	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 51.8¢	$164.36	$27.95	-$132.27	73% 1545-559 (2104)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$19.44	$8.54	-$10.9	76% 4011-1262 (5273)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Noavg 5.5¢	$2.75	$5.85	+$3.1	83% 2586-523 (3109)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.43	+$0.02	54% 6192-5242 (11434)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$1.95	$2.95	+$1	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2	$2.3	+$0.3	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$3.25	$0.28	-$2.97	67% 23266-11671 (34937)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,334.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.58

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

RN1CTR

Invested

$954.55

Value

$900.2

PnL

-$54.34

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$138.95

Value

$382.16

PnL

+$243.21

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

Both legs:

No$1,198.1581.2¢+$240.36

Yes$74.6376.4¢+$2.86

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$220.05

Value

$240.34

PnL

+$20.29

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

Both legs:

Yes$31.8715.8¢+$146.28

No$188.1735.4¢-$125.99

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,574.93

Value

$208.19

PnL

-$956.78

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$192

Value

$184

PnL

-$8

Record

89%

909-116 (1025)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.13

Value

$51.94

PnL

+$25.81

Record

59%

9914-6887 (16801)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.33

Value

$42.34

PnL

-$0.99

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$35.68

Value

$35.57

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$164.36

Value

$27.95

PnL

-$132.27

Record

73%

1545-559 (2104)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$10.9

Record

76%

4011-1262 (5273)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$3.1

Record

83%

2586-523 (3109)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

6192-5242 (11434)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$2.97

Record

67%

23266-11671 (34937)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2587.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

2687.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.