Will Abha Saudi Club win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$2.13

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,904

Combined PnL-$11.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$139.14

Total Shares870

Combined PnL+$13.52

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$14.69	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 83.7¢	$222.56	$223.84	+$1.29	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
CA Cannae	Noavg 83.8¢	$214.65	$215.24	+$2.02	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$107.76	$109.76	+$2	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 14.4¢	$100.48	$23.38	+$11.27	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.7¢	$4.7	$4.8	+$0.1	47% 2255-2545 (4800)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.05	$1.2	+$0.15	52% 3994-3636 (7630)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,184.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.69

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

38791873984189

Invested

$222.56

Value

$223.84

PnL

+$1.29

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Cannae

Invested

$214.65

Value

$215.24

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.76

Value

$109.76

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$100.48

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$11.27

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2255-2545 (4800)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.