Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-10-11?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $673 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$672.68
$5.1
64.8¢ → 66¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $400.09 | $392.09 | -$7 | 56% 6834-5474 (12308) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34¢ | $260.09 | $260.09 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70¢ | $140 | $132 | -$7 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64¢ | $195.16 | $201.26 | +$6.1 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $67.13 | $66.13 | -$1 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $13.2 | +$0 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$400.09
Value
$392.09
PnL
-$7
Record
56%
6834-5474 (12308)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$195.16
Value
$201.26
PnL
+$6.1
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$67.13
Value
$66.13
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.