Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Faisaly Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $379 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$378.84
-$59.32
50.9¢ → 84¢
+65% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 55¢ | $124.57 | $99.12 | -$25.45 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $77.7 | $80.48 | +$2.77 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $95.5 | $68.71 | -$26.79 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 43¢ | $161.25 | $66.46 | +$5.21 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $45.79 | $33.2 | -$12.59 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $18.85 | $20 | +$1.15 | 50% 2443-2433 (4876) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $14.5 | $10.88 | -$3.63 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
Invested
$124.57
Value
$99.12
PnL
-$25.45
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
Invested
$77.7
Value
$80.48
PnL
+$2.77
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
Invested
$95.5
Value
$68.71
PnL
-$26.79
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
VeryLucky888Invested
$161.25
Value
$66.46
PnL
+$5.21
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
RN1<$100Invested
$45.79
Value
$33.2
PnL
-$12.59
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
Invested
$18.85
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.15
Record
50%
2443-2433 (4876)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$3.63
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.