Will Abha Saudi Club win on 2026-10-11?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$3.0K
-$37.81
61¢ → 66.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$28.96 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 62¢ | $591.78 | $564.95 | -$26.84 | 56% 6836-5476 (12312) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 61.5¢ | $428.65 | $449.31 | +$20.66 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $415 | $420.19 | +$5.19 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $45.23 | $37.6 | -$7.63 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $6.16 | $5.93 | -$0.23 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,560.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$28.96
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
0xheavy888Invested
$591.78
Value
$564.95
PnL
-$26.84
Record
56%
6836-5476 (12312)
Invested
$428.65
Value
$449.31
PnL
+$20.66
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
Invested
$415
Value
$420.19
PnL
+$5.19
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$45.23
Value
$37.6
PnL
-$7.63
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.16
Value
$5.93
PnL
-$0.23
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.