SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$3.0K
$395.73
76.5¢ → 81.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 76.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$196.5 | 68% 829-398 (1227) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 89.5¢ | $895 | $815 | -$20 | 56% 15362-11917 (27279) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 59.7¢ | $423.26 | $642.49 | +$219.23 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.