Solana Up or Down on October 28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 82¢ · $491 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 100%
$491.25
-$2.66
74.6¢ → 82¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL almach | Upavg 74.5¢ | $150.41 | $149.72 | -$0.69 | 55% 47931-39536 (87467) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74.2¢ | $148.5 | $149 | +$0.5 | 55% 49184-39442 (88626) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 75.2¢ | $116.45 | $114.83 | -$1.62 | 55% 49977-40606 (90583) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $56.25 | $55.5 | -$0.75 | 65% 2334-1260 (3594) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $22.3 | $22.2 | -$0.1 | 56% 2615-2073 (4688) |
Invested
$150.41
Value
$149.72
PnL
-$0.69
Record
55%
47931-39536 (87467)
Invested
$148.5
Value
$149
PnL
+$0.5
Record
55%
49184-39442 (88626)
Invested
$116.45
Value
$114.83
PnL
-$1.62
Record
55%
49977-40606 (90583)
Invested
$56.25
Value
$55.5
PnL
-$0.75
Record
65%
2334-1260 (3594)
Invested
$22.3
Value
$22.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
2615-2073 (4688)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.