Solana Up or Down on October 27?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 89¢ · $926 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$925.88
$42.29
77¢ → 88.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $444.83 | $460.36 | +$15.53 | 65% 2315-1255 (3570) |
BO bosona | Downavg 75.8¢ | $198.32 | $207.9 | +$9.58 | 56% 48955-39203 (88158) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 77.3¢ | $133.82 | $141.91 | +$8.09 | 55% 49798-40414 (90212) |
AL almach | Downavg 75.2¢ | $223.54 | $100.1 | +$8.89 | 55% 47738-39333 (87071) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $15.3 | $15.6 | +$0.2 | 56% 2545-2002 (4547) |
Invested
$444.83
Value
$460.36
PnL
+$15.53
Record
65%
2315-1255 (3570)
Invested
$198.32
Value
$207.9
PnL
+$9.58
Record
56%
48955-39203 (88158)
Invested
$133.82
Value
$141.91
PnL
+$8.09
Record
55%
49798-40414 (90212)
Invested
$223.54
Value
$100.1
PnL
+$8.89
Record
55%
47738-39333 (87071)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
2545-2002 (4547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.