Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$2.3K
$-2.4K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 96¢ | $4.7K | $2.2K | $-2.5K | 46% 510-587 (1097) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 4.2¢ | $2.6K | $41.56 | +$67.01 | 65% 3070-1637 (4707) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 36.4¢ | $20.11 | $9.18 | -$1.86 | 48% 10447-11111 (21558) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 7.6¢ | $0.91 | $7.31 | +$6.4 | 62% 868-536 (1404) |
Invested
$4,721.19
Value
$2.2K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
46%
510-587 (1097)
Invested
$2,648.06
Value
$41.56
PnL
+$67.01
Record
65%
3070-1637 (4707)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$20.11
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$1.86
Record
48%
10447-11111 (21558)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$7.31
PnL
+$6.4
Record
62%
868-536 (1404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.