Will the price of Solana be above $70 on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 60¢ · $760 held · ends Nov 15

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$760.29

Combined PnL

-$494.06

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 60.4¢

-30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$742.57

Total Shares912

Combined PnL-$510.36

No2 traders

Total Value$17.71

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$16.3

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 91.7¢	$1.8K	$382.85	-$504.71	68% 208-100 (308)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 80¢	$333.16	$260.66	-$0.4	49% 214-226 (440)
EA easypredict<$100	Yesavg 79.2¢	$39.34	$39.33	-$0	— 4-5 (9)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 82.4¢	$40.79	$23.1	+$1.34	43% 5182-7005 (12187)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Yesavg 98.3¢	$25.56	$20.58	-$4.98	87% 135-20 (155)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Noavg 12.8¢	$6.57	$15.09	+$13.9	21% 65-242 (307)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 78.3¢	$88.01	$9.41	-$4.68	50% 1662-1690 (3352)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$3.57	$6.63	+$3.06	59% 27-19 (46)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$0.23	$2.63	+$2.4	41% 2666-3863 (6529)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$1,779.61

Value

$382.85

PnL

-$504.71

Record

68%

208-100 (308)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$333.16

Value

$260.66

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

214-226 (440)

easypredict<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.34

Value

$39.33

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-5 (9)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.79

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$1.34

Record

43%

5182-7005 (12187)

Sharky6999<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.56

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$4.98

Record

87%

135-20 (155)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$13.9

Record

21%

65-242 (307)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.01

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$4.68

Record

50%

1662-1690 (3352)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$3.06

Record

59%

27-19 (46)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$2.4

Record

41%

2666-3863 (6529)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.1%

60.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.