Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (10%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $926 held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 10%

Total Value

$926.29

Combined PnL

$3.92

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down1 trader

Total Value$490.15

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$0.05

Up9 traders

Total Value$436.14

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$3.87

Down — 10%Up — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	$490.15	+$0.05	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$149.53	+$0.27	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 96.6¢	$122.31	$126.56	+$4.25	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 99¢	$99	$98.5	-$0.5	34% 1285-2527 (3812)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 84¢	$19.63	$20.43	+$0.79	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.99	+$0.01	54% 1670-1435 (3105)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54¢	$7	$11.1	+$4.1	44% 1442-1799 (3241)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 87¢	$13.95	$9.29	-$4.66	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.75	-$0.1	65% 2926-1596 (4522)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 65¢	$1.3	$1	-$0.3	62% 4812-2936 (7748)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$490.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

soswald1

Invested

$150

Value

$149.53

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$122.31

Value

$126.56

PnL

+$4.25

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$99

Value

$98.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

34%

1285-2527 (3812)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

$20.43

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

1670-1435 (3105)

13897651<$100

Invested

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$4.1

Record

44%

1442-1799 (3241)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$4.66

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

65%

2926-1596 (4522)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.