Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (92%) · Down at 100¢ · $672 held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

Total Value

$672.4

Combined PnL

-$3.64

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 99.5¢

+63% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$670.22

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$3.23

Up1 trader

Total Value$2.18

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.41

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 98¢	$101.89	$100.28	-$1.12	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 85¢	$21.25	$21.13	-$0.13	47% 2539-2808 (5347)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$20.2	$19.72	-$0.48	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.15	-$0.15	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 66¢	$6.6	$5	-$1.6	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.77	-$0.18	65% 2926-1596 (4522)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 92¢	$3.68	$3.82	+$0.14	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81¢	$2.52	$2.81	+$0.29	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 85¢	$2.55	$2.54	-$0.01	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 8.7¢	$2.6	$2.18	-$0.41	44% 1442-1799 (3241)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2	$2	+$0	51% 2283-2160 (4443)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$101.89

Value

$100.28

PnL

-$1.12

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$21.25

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2539-2808 (5347)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$20.2

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$6.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.18

Record

65%

2926-1596 (4522)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.14

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.41

Record

44%

1442-1799 (3241)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2283-2160 (4443)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.