Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (91%) · Up at 100¢ · $829 held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$828.85

Combined PnL

-$2.45

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$676.48

Total Shares677

Combined PnL-$1.21

Down1 trader

Total Value$7.37

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$1.24

Up — 91%Down — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$501.4	$500.6	-$0.44	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$145	+$0.15	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$75	+$0
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$70	$70	+$0.15
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 95¢	$51.28	$53.97	+$2.69	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$38.3	$39.73	+$1.43	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 97.5¢	$30.88	$31.51	+$0.62	34% 1285-2527 (3812)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 99¢	$22.59	$18.45	-$4.14	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.84	$10.68	-$0.16	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$8.61	$7.37	-$1.24	44% 1442-1799 (3241)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.85	-$0.09	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.85	-$0.09	50% 2955-2954 (5909)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.85	-$0.09	65% 2926-1596 (4522)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 91¢	$7.68	$4	-$0.94	62% 4812-2936 (7748)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$501.4

Value

$500.6

PnL

-$0.44

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢+$0

Up$7050¢+$0.15

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$53.97

PnL

+$2.69

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$38.3

Value

$39.73

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$30.88

Value

$31.51

PnL

+$0.62

Record

34%

1285-2527 (3812)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$22.59

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$4.14

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$10.84

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$0.16

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.61

Value

$7.37

PnL

-$1.24

Record

44%

1442-1799 (3241)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

65%

2926-1596 (4522)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

PnL

-$0.94

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.