Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 25%
1 arb excluded
$378.18
-$463.94
Smart Money Signal
4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $505.62 | — | -$481.1 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $102 | -$1.39 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $69.44 | — | -$70.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $51 | $102 | +$68.72 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $46.5 | $50 | +$3.5 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $43.32 | $46.58 | +$3.26 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 91.5¢ | $27.45 | $30 | +$2.55 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $25.56 | $23.19 | -$2.37 | 44% 1442-1799 (3241) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 89.8¢ | $38.11 | $42.45 | +$4.34 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $18.97 | $19 | +$0.03 | 54% 1670-1435 (3105) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $3.02 | — | -$3.02 | 70% 1911-827 (2738) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $16.83 | $18.75 | +$1.93 | 50% 1805-1831 (3636) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $13.95 | $15 | +$1.05 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $5.76 | $9.26 | +$3.5 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $14.35 | $16.31 | +$1.96 | 60% 4369-2959 (7328) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $1.84 | $2 | +$0.16 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $1.64 | $3.64 | +$2 | 50% 1016-1007 (2023) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.5¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
Invested
$505.62
Value
—
PnL
-$481.1
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$150
Value
$102
PnL
-$1.39
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$3.5
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$43.32
Value
$46.58
PnL
+$3.26
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$27.45
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.55
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$25.56
Value
$23.19
PnL
-$2.37
Record
44%
1442-1799 (3241)
Invested
$38.11
Value
$42.45
PnL
+$4.34
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$18.97
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
1670-1435 (3105)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$3.02
Value
—
PnL
-$3.02
Record
70%
1911-827 (2738)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$16.83
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$1.93
Record
50%
1805-1831 (3636)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.05
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$3.5
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$14.35
Value
$16.31
PnL
+$1.96
Record
60%
4369-2959 (7328)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.16
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$3.64
PnL
+$2
Record
50%
1016-1007 (2023)
Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $46.58
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $30
13897651
Up — $23.19
ply-pm2
Up — $42.45
0x50f7
Up — $19
BoneOhio
CTRDown — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $18.75