Solana Up or Down - November 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.74

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,331

Combined PnL-$47.74

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$59.53	54% 1662-1428 (3090)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 91.9¢	$785.53	$854.38	+$68.85	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$501.74	$500.5	+$1.04	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$247.3	$250.5	+$1.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 98.1¢	$85.18	$86.37	+$1.18	34% 1279-2509 (3788)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$79.4	$79.84	+$0.44	70% 1893-822 (2715)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 93¢	$51.3	$51.58	+$0.28	40% 1799-2733 (4532)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 90.5¢	$90.49	$49.99	-$40.5	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 95.4¢	$43.92	$43.87	-$0.04	45% 1433-1784 (3217)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$24.65	$29.99	+$5.34	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 90¢	$21.08	$11.71	-$9.37	52% 1719-1616 (3335)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91¢	$17.28	$9.5	-$7.79	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.35	+$0.05	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 92¢	$13.8	$7.5	-$6.3	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.5	-$0.35	48% 1548-1672 (3220)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,067.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$59.53

Record

54%

1662-1428 (3090)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$785.53

Value

$854.38

PnL

+$68.85

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.74

Value

$500.5

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.18

Value

$86.37

PnL

+$1.18

Record

34%

1279-2509 (3788)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$79.4

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$0.44

Record

70%

1893-822 (2715)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$51.3

Value

$51.58

PnL

+$0.28

Record

40%

1799-2733 (4532)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$90.49

Value

$49.99

PnL

-$40.5

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$43.92

Value

$43.87

PnL

-$0.04

Record

45%

1433-1784 (3217)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$24.65

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$5.34

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$21.08

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$9.37

Record

52%

1719-1616 (3335)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.28

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$7.79

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$13.8

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$6.3

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

1548-1672 (3220)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.