Solana Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $634 held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$633.56

Combined PnL

$25.54

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 99.5¢

+85% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$607.03

Total Shares623

Combined PnL+$26.38

Down4 traders

Total Value$26.53

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$0.84

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.1¢	$505.7	$499.95	+$6.55	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$25.31	$36.69	+$11.38	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 75¢	$20.9	$21.06	+$1.51	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 77¢	$18.48	$20.28	+$1.8	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$13.92	$18.73	+$4.81	45% 1433-1784 (3217)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 18.4¢	$20.65	$18.2	-$2.45	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 98.2¢	$5.94	$6.02	+$0.08	65% 2910-1583 (4493)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$4.55	$5.11	+$0.56	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.62	$3.2	+$2.58	34% 1279-2509 (3788)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.5	+$0.05	51% 2264-2146 (4410)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75¢	$1.6	$1.8	+$0.2	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$1.56	$0.03	-$1.53	43% 2210-2957 (5167)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$505.7

Value

$499.95

PnL

+$6.55

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$25.31

Value

$36.69

PnL

+$11.38

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$20.9

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$18.48

Value

$20.28

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

13897651<$100

Invested

$13.92

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$4.81

Record

45%

1433-1784 (3217)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.65

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$2.45

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.08

Record

65%

2910-1583 (4493)

soswald1CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.56

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.62

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$2.58

Record

34%

1279-2509 (3788)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.53

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.