Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$601.15
$5.72
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $509.7 | $490 | -$10.84 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $255.68 | — | -$255.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $19.4 | $30.17 | +$10.77 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $17.78 | $17.86 | +$0.08 | 45% 1433-1784 (3217) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $16.28 | $17.7 | +$1.42 | 34% 1279-2509 (3788) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $25.45 | $15 | +$3.5 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $13.95 | $15 | +$1.05 | 60% 4351-2951 (7302) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $11.08 | $13.39 | +$2.31 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $11.87 | — | -$11.87 | 54% 2796-2370 (5166) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $2.25 | — | -$2.25 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $1.28 | $2.03 | +$0.75 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.04 | — | -$0.04 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
Invested
$509.7
Value
$490
PnL
-$10.84
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.4
Value
$30.17
PnL
+$10.77
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Invested
$17.78
Value
$17.86
PnL
+$0.08
Record
45%
1433-1784 (3217)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$16.28
Value
$17.7
PnL
+$1.42
Record
34%
1279-2509 (3788)
Invested
$25.45
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.5
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.05
Record
60%
4351-2951 (7302)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.08
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$2.31
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$11.87
Value
—
PnL
-$11.87
Record
54%
2796-2370 (5166)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
—
PnL
-$2.25
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.75
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
Invested
$0.04
Value
—
PnL
-$0.04
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)