Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 82¢ · $545 held · ends Nov 15

Up18¢Down82¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$545.09

Combined PnL

-$1.36

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up18%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$45.57

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$1.26

Up1 trader

Total Value$1

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.1

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$504.58	$498.52	+$2.23	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$248.02	$395.9	+$149.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$249.59	$102.61	-$146.87
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$17.57	$18.21	+$0.64	45% 1425-1776 (3201)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$16.3	$14.06	-$2.24	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 79¢	$8.9	$8.09	-$0.6	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 41¢	$4.27	$5.21	+$0.94	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$1.1	$1	-$0.1	62% 4748-2897 (7645)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$504.58

Value

$498.52

PnL

+$2.23

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$248.0249.8¢+$149.11

Up$249.5949.9¢-$146.87

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$17.57

Value

$18.21

PnL

+$0.64

Record

45%

1425-1776 (3201)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$16.3

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$2.24

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$4.27

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.0%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.