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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$228.11

Combined PnL

-$499.41

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares503
Combined PnL-$499.6
Up6 traders
Total Value$78.11
Total Shares78
Combined PnL+$0.19
Down — 33%Up — 67%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$499

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$7.8

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Both legs:

Up$7550¢+$75
Down$6050¢-$67.2
13
13897651<$100
Up

Invested

$35.17

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$0.91

Record

45%

1425-1776 (3201)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$17.82

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Up

Invested

$16.5

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Up

Invested

$5

Value

$5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1650-1425 (3075)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Up

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

1785-2715 (4500)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.52

Value

—

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.09

Value

—

PnL

-$0.09

Record

43%

2188-2930 (5118)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x202d6613...1d4a69
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794777900

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$499
SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.8
13

13897651

Up — $36.08

+$0.91
HO

hoodquant

Up — $18

+$0.18
AS

asdcaxz

Up — $15

-$1.5
0X

0x50f7

Up — $5

+$0
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $2.05

+$0.55

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $1.98

+$0.04
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.52
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.09
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