Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$781.06
$2.84
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $501.59 | $493.06 | -$2.13 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $246.59 | $493.06 | +$247.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $82.17 | $83 | +$0.83 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $36.45 | $46.66 | +$14.71 | 49% 2572-2644 (5216) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $48.95 | $45.94 | -$3.01 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $28.92 | $39.64 | +$10.72 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $41.96 | $37.56 | -$4.4 | 45% 1425-1776 (3201) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $16.2 | $18 | +$1.8 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $7.21 | — | -$7.21 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 65% 2887-1573 (4460) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94.9¢ | $9.72 | $5.14 | +$0.46 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.8 | $5.05 | +$0.25 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.4¢ | $0.38 | — | -$0.38 | 34% 1270-2495 (3765) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $4.4 | — | -$4.4 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.9¢ | $2.78 | — | -$2.78 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.4¢ | $3.83 | — | -$3.83 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
Invested
$501.59
Value
$493.06
PnL
-$2.13
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.17
Value
$83
PnL
+$0.83
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$46.66
PnL
+$14.71
Record
49%
2572-2644 (5216)
Invested
$48.95
Value
$45.94
PnL
-$3.01
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$28.92
Value
$39.64
PnL
+$10.72
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
Invested
$41.96
Value
$37.56
PnL
-$4.4
Record
45%
1425-1776 (3201)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$18
PnL
+$1.8
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$7.21
Value
—
PnL
-$7.21
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
65%
2887-1573 (4460)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$5.14
PnL
+$0.46
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
—
PnL
-$0.38
Record
34%
1270-2495 (3765)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$2.78
Value
—
PnL
-$2.78
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.83
Value
—
PnL
-$3.83
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $83
uninformedfloww
Down — $46.66
asdcaxz
Down — $45.94
ply-pm2
Down — $39.64
13897651
Down — $37.56
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $18
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $7
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $5.14