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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$253.9

Combined PnL

-$508.97

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares552

Combined PnL-$513.99

Down5 traders

Total Value$111.84

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$5.02

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.3¢	$515.1	—	-$497.39	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$142.06	+$0.61	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$65	—	-$68.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$71.03	$142.06	+$69.36
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$37.73	$40.32	+$2.59	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$18.96	$20.73	+$1.77	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$27.59	$20.45	-$7.14	45% 1425-1776 (3201)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97.8¢	$18.91	$19.33	+$0.42	34% 1270-2495 (3765)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$8.93	—	-$8.93	40% 1785-2715 (4500)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$2.57	—	-$2.57	60% 4328-2942 (7270)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 33¢	$3.63	$11	+$7.37	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$3.62	—	-$3.62	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.02	—	-$0.02	54% 1650-1425 (3075)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$1.46	—	-$1.46	62% 4748-2897 (7645)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$515.1

Value

—

PnL

-$497.39

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$142.06

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Both legs:

Up$6550¢-$68.75

Down$71.0350¢+$69.36

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$37.73

Value

$40.32

PnL

+$2.59

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Invested

$18.96

Value

$20.73

PnL

+$1.77

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

Invested

$27.59

Value

$20.45

PnL

-$7.14

Record

45%

1425-1776 (3201)

Invested

$18.91

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$0.42

Record

34%

1270-2495 (3765)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

—

PnL

-$8.93

Record

40%

1785-2715 (4500)

Invested

$2.57

Value

—

PnL

-$2.57

Record

60%

4328-2942 (7270)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$11

PnL

+$7.37

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

—

PnL

-$3.62

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

Invested

$0.02

Value

—

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

1650-1425 (3075)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

—

PnL

-$1.46

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xacf0c6b4...41cf31

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794777000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $40.32

asdcaxz

Down — $20.73

13897651

Down — $20.45

pspspsps5

Down — $19.33

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $11

ply-pm2

Up — $0

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