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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$666.03

Combined PnL

-$70.7

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$176.02

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$10.53

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$81.24

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$511.99	$490.01	-$5.62	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$243.24	$490.01	+$246.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$253.08	—	-$251.72
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$80.68	$81.05	+$0.37	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$47.64	$45.83	-$1.81	45% 1425-1776 (3201)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 41.8¢	$47.62	—	-$43.72	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$21.99	$17.44	+$9.4	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$32.28	$15.21	-$3.13	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$9.41	$11.17	+$1.76	40% 1785-2715 (4500)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$25.61	—	-$25.61	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 27.5¢	$2.75	—	-$2.75	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 26¢	$1.38	$5.32	+$3.94	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$1.17	—	-$1.17	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	50% 2915-2911 (5826)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.14	—	-$1.14	65% 2887-1573 (4460)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.2	—	-$0.2	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 35.9¢	$4.39	—	-$4.39	36% 1518-2714 (4232)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$511.99

Value

$490.01

PnL

-$5.62

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Up$243.2449.6¢+$246.1

Down$253.0850.3¢-$251.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$80.68

Value

$81.05

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Invested

$47.64

Value

$45.83

PnL

-$1.81

Record

45%

1425-1776 (3201)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$47.62

Value

—

PnL

-$43.72

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

Invested

$21.99

Value

$17.44

PnL

+$9.4

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$32.28

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$3.13

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$1.76

Record

40%

1785-2715 (4500)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$25.61

Value

—

PnL

-$25.61

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

—

PnL

-$2.75

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$3.94

Record

43%

2188-2930 (5118)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

—

PnL

-$1.17

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

2915-2911 (5826)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

—

PnL

-$1.14

Record

65%

2887-1573 (4460)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.39

Value

—

PnL

-$4.39

Record

36%

1518-2714 (4232)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3639f273...b3bc56

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794776400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $81.05

13897651

Up — $45.83

asdcaxz

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $17.44

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $15.21

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $11.17

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $5.32

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