Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$808.91
$1.46
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $522.53 | $500.82 | -$4.1 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $256.3 | $500.82 | +$249 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $246.55 | — | -$253.1 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $111 | -$8.85 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $55.5 | $111 | +$62.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $72.5 | — | -$71.15 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $62.69 | $64 | +$1.31 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $45.86 | $49.42 | +$3.56 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $21.58 | $24 | +$2.42 | 50% 1792-1817 (3609) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $28.16 | $20 | -$8.16 | 45% 1425-1776 (3201) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $22.99 | $18 | -$4.99 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.1¢ | $7.76 | — | -$7.76 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $4.92 | $6.05 | +$1.13 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 34% 1270-2495 (3765) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 38.5¢ | $2.55 | $6.63 | +$4.08 | 65% 2887-1573 (4460) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $1.45 | $3.37 | +$1.92 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.1¢ | $1.04 | — | -$1.04 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $0.53 | $0.63 | +$0.1 | 52% 1724-1594 (3318) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.03 | — | -$0.03 | 36% 1518-2714 (4232) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $29.42 | — | +$11.79 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.5¢ | $1.01 | — | -$1.01 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
Invested
$522.53
Value
$500.82
PnL
-$4.1
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$111
PnL
-$8.85
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.69
Value
$64
PnL
+$1.31
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$45.86
Value
$49.42
PnL
+$3.56
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$21.58
Value
$24
PnL
+$2.42
Record
50%
1792-1817 (3609)
Invested
$28.16
Value
$20
PnL
-$8.16
Record
45%
1425-1776 (3201)
Invested
$22.99
Value
$18
PnL
-$4.99
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.76
Value
—
PnL
-$7.76
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$1.13
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
34%
1270-2495 (3765)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$6.63
PnL
+$4.08
Record
65%
2887-1573 (4460)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$3.37
PnL
+$1.92
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
Invested
$1.04
Value
—
PnL
-$1.04
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
1724-1594 (3318)
Invested
$0.03
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
36%
1518-2714 (4232)
Invested
$29.42
Value
—
PnL
+$11.79
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
Invested
$1.01
Value
—
PnL
-$1.01
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $64
asdcaxz
Down — $49.42
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $24
13897651
Down — $20
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $18
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $6.05
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0