Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 92%
1 arb excluded
$883.75
$6.35
Smart Money Signal
12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $514.6 | $500 | -$7.6 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $134.9 | -$6.25 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $67.45 | $134.9 | +$67.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $72.5 | — | -$73.55 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $67.76 | $50 | -$17.76 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $37.42 | $36 | -$1.42 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $27.25 | $55 | +$27.75 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $22.27 | $25 | +$2.73 | 45% 1410-1758 (3168) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $24.44 | $24.28 | -$0.16 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 90.8¢ | $20.78 | $20 | -$0.78 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $17.62 | $19.15 | +$1.53 | 49% 2537-2616 (5153) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $6.01 | $7.42 | +$1.41 | 52% 1704-1576 (3280) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 65% 2855-1552 (4407) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $5 | +$0.7 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $1.28 | $2 | +$0.72 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.3¢ | $0.97 | — | -$0.97 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
Invested
$514.6
Value
$500
PnL
-$7.6
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$150
Value
$134.9
PnL
-$6.25
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.76
Value
$50
PnL
-$17.76
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
Invested
$37.42
Value
$36
PnL
-$1.42
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Invested
$27.25
Value
$55
PnL
+$27.75
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$22.27
Value
$25
PnL
+$2.73
Record
45%
1410-1758 (3168)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$24.44
Value
$24.28
PnL
-$0.16
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.78
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$19.15
PnL
+$1.53
Record
49%
2537-2616 (5153)
Invested
$6.01
Value
$7.42
PnL
+$1.41
Record
52%
1704-1576 (3280)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
65%
2855-1552 (4407)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.7
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.72
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
—
PnL
-$0.97
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $50
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $55
13897651
Down — $25
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $24.28
asdcaxz
Down — $20
uninformedfloww
Down — $19.15
mo-money
Down — $7.42