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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 50%

Total Value

$216.36

Combined PnL

-$611.81

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$620.19

Down5 traders

Total Value$216.36

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$8.38

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$510.12	—	-$496.31	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$150	$130	+$1.94	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$66.25	—	-$66.25	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$52.78	—	-$52.78	45% 1410-1758 (3168)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$61.5	$60.28	+$0.88	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$10.69	$11.35	+$1.37	62% 4692-2855 (7547)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$6.79	$7.07	+$0.28	66% 4016-2029 (6045)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$3.15	—	-$3.15	40% 1760-2679 (4439)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49¢	$3.75	$7.66	+$3.9	51% 2213-2109 (4322)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$1.71	—	-$1.71	42% 2132-2886 (5018)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$510.12

Value

—

PnL

-$496.31

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Invested

$150

Value

$130

PnL

+$1.94

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$66.25

Value

—

PnL

-$66.25

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$52.78

Value

—

PnL

-$52.78

Record

45%

1410-1758 (3168)

Invested

$61.5

Value

$60.28

PnL

+$0.88

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$1.37

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

Invested

$6.79

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.28

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

—

PnL

-$3.15

Record

40%

1760-2679 (4439)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$3.9

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

—

PnL

-$1.71

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d9bfac4...d30576

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794768000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $130

ply-pm2

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $60.28

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $11.35

asdaefef

Down — $7.07

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $7.66

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

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