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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$525.8

Combined PnL

-$121.53

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares221

Combined PnL-$143.59

Down5 traders

Total Value$33.98

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$22.06

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$513.12	$491.82	-$1.97	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245.82	$491.82	+$247.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$251.37	—	-$249.37
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$42.86	—	-$42.86	44% 1400-1752 (3152)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$29.52	—	-$25.62	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$11.4	—	-$11.4	52% 3882-3606 (7488)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 9¢	$0.9	$10	+$9.1	40% 1745-2665 (4410)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$7.95	—	-$7.95	43% 2420-3146 (5566)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$7.35	—	-$7.35	48% 2561-2807 (5368)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$1.57	$6	+$4.43	42% 2109-2870 (4979)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$10.62	$7.16	+$1.75	62% 4661-2837 (7498)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 75¢	$5.2	—	-$5.2	66% 3992-2014 (6006)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 49¢	$3.63	$7.41	+$3.78	48% 2538-2754 (5292)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$0.68	—	-$0.68	70% 1846-795 (2641)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 12¢	$0.41	$3.41	+$3	60% 4264-2896 (7160)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$42.53	—	-$42.53	54% 2727-2307 (5034)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$513.12

Value

$491.82

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

Both legs:

Down$245.8250¢+$247.4

Up$251.3750¢-$249.37

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$42.86

Value

—

PnL

-$42.86

Record

44%

1400-1752 (3152)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$29.52

Value

—

PnL

-$25.62

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

—

PnL

-$11.4

Record

52%

3882-3606 (7488)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$9.1

Record

40%

1745-2665 (4410)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

—

PnL

-$7.95

Record

43%

2420-3146 (5566)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

—

PnL

-$7.35

Record

48%

2561-2807 (5368)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.43

Record

42%

2109-2870 (4979)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$1.75

Record

62%

4661-2837 (7498)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

—

PnL

-$5.2

Record

66%

3992-2014 (6006)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$3.78

Record

48%

2538-2754 (5292)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$0.68

Value

—

PnL

-$0.68

Record

70%

1846-795 (2641)

Invested

$0.41

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$3

Record

60%

4264-2896 (7160)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$42.53

Value

—

PnL

-$42.53

Record

54%

2727-2307 (5034)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xee9fa540...5fe63d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794766500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $10

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $7.16

asdaefef

Up — $0

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